The 5 most profitable rental investments in the Bay Area.
The method
How a listing earns a spot.
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Scan
Every week, every multi-unit and room-rental-viable listing in Bay Area ZIPs where a duplex still pencils under owner-occupied financing. ZIPs near a funded BART or Caltrain extension, with rezoning on the docket.
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Model
Every deal runs through the same model. Cautious rents from comps you can click through to. We charge ourselves for vacancy, CapEx, a property manager, and taxes. The model doesn’t get to invent anything.
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Benchmark
The same down payment goes into the S&P 500 for the same timeframe. Rental-side depreciation and mortgage interest are credited at your marginal rate; what’s not modeled is named in the disclosure block. The wealth margin is reported in dollars, not percentages. If the deal can’t beat the index, it doesn’t get ranked.
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Rank
Top 5 by wealth-vs-S&P 500 over 10 years, with sensitivity tables showing cautious, expected, and best-case rents. The #1 pick is the deal whose cautious case beats the index by the widest margin.
Read this before you subscribe
Two minutes. Read both columns. If you’re in the right one, sign up.
Subscribe if…
- Your money is in VOO or a 4% HYSA. You want to know which Bay Area duplex actually beats it over 10 years.
- You want cautious rents, a named BART line or zoning vote behind every growth claim, sourced numbers. Not a PDF that swapped "John" for "Sarah".
- You’ll owner-occupy for two years. Maybe three. If the math beats the index on a real address.
- You can handle a week where the answer is "rent and buy VOO."
Skip it if…
- You’re not shopping the Bay Area. We’re not adding Sacramento to keep you subscribed.
- You want a deal delivered ready to sign. This is a research report, not a brokerage.
- You can’t owner-occupy for at least a year. Without rented units offsetting your mortgage, the house-hack math stops beating the S&P 500.
- You need guarantees. Some weeks none of the 5 clear the index. We tell you in the subject line.
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Questions
Things people ask before subscribing.
- Why free?
- Because nobody trusts a paid newsletter on issue #4. The free edition is the real methodology with the addresses redacted — keep it free forever. When you want the addresses, that's the Full Report.
- Why only the Bay Area?
- SF has the widest gap between "guru says buy" and the actual 10-year math. Adding Phoenix dilutes the test.
- Is this investment advice?
- No. We show the assumptions, the sensitivities, the math. You decide. Nothing in the report tells anyone to buy anything.
- What if I hate it?
- Unsubscribe link at the bottom of every issue. One click. Nobody calls you.
- Has the calculator ever told you to walk from a deal?
- Yes. I almost bought a townhouse in Maryland — pre-approved, two weeks from signing. The math came back leaning S&P 500. I walked. Full writeup.